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Three Waves of Alvin Toffler. The Basic Points |
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Горшок торфяной для цветов. I roduc io . Impressio s abou he book. II. he Pri cipe of he evolu io accordi g o Alvi offlerIII.Firs wave IV.Seco d waveIV. hird wave E ergy of he ew ge era io Semi-direc democracy. Mi ori y power. V.Wa chi g he shif . Co clusio I.I roduc io . Impressio s abou he book. Readi g he book “ he hird Wave” by Alvi offler lef a very deep mark i my memory. here are o ly a few people i he e ire world ha have he ki d of mi d ha allows hem o look a regular life differe ly, a alyze i a d make assump io s ha regular people would ’ eve o ice. I hi k ha Alvi offler is o e of hese people. Eve hough I do ’ agree wi h he au hor o some ma ers, I wa o admi ha “ he hird Wave” is he book ha was wri e by a ma who really cares abou he issues he is explori g a d who is also a grea exper i his field of s udy. Eve if I did o k ow Alvi ’s biography, af er readi g he book I could assume ha explori g huma evolu io , social issues a d his ory has always bee a goal of his life. Basically, he book ells us abou he au hor’s seei g he evolu io of he huma socie y. I ca imagi e how fresh a d ou s a di g seemed his idea of dividi g he flow of huma his ory a d developme i o several phases ha he called “waves” we y years ago whe his book was firs published i 1980. Si ce ha ime “ he hird Wave” has bee ra sla ed i o all major la guages a d became very popular all over he world. While readi g “ he hird Wave” I kep aski g myself he ques io : “Wha would Alvi cha ge if he wro e his book owadays”. I do ’ wa o judge him for some of his forecas s ha ever came rue especially because he urged he readers o o fil er ou si gle i ems, bu look a he sys em i i s e ire y. Lo s of cha ges have happe ed si ce he book firs saw he world. World Wide Web brough a piece of i forma io al freedom i o almos every house, he big empire U.S.S.R collapsed (eve Alvi did o believe i his p. 314), fi ally, we me he ew mille ium. We are ow much deeper i he hird wave a d his Alvi ’s work is s ill popular a d very ac ual. Moreover, i became a refere ce frame for he fu ure research a d is bei g s udied i colleges like DeVRY. A o her issue I wa o poi ou here is he impor a ce of he Alvi offler’s work. Eve if here were s ill some people who do o wa o look back a d o explore our his ory, hey would probably wa o k ow wha is goi g o happe o hem omorrow or af er a cer ai period of ime i fu ure. A he very begi i g of he book, i he i roduc ory par , Alvi war s he readers abou expec i g a y ki d of prog osis or predic io s hroughou he e ire book so i would o look like a os rodamus prophecy or a e cyclopedia of he fu ure. He is aware ha he does o have e ough i forma io a d/or k owledge o make some judgeme s a d purposely leaves his ype of ques io s wide ope for dispu e. he au hor gives he reader or he fu ure explorer direc io s, he basic ou li es ha should be filled up by hem. “Some imes i is be er o ask he righ ques io ra her ha o give he righ a swer o he wro g o e”(6). II. he Pri cipe of he evolu io accordi g o Alvi offler he book co sis s of wo major par s where he au hor describes he firs wo waves ha he huma socie y came hrough a d also he hird wave.
I is he wave ha we are livi g i righ ow. Bu firs , le ’s ake a look a he whole heory ha Alvi ries o explai i his work. Accordi g o he au hor, he huma evolu io is o s epless bu i co sis s of several s ages. So far, he socie y has experie ced hree of hem. Whe here is a coi cide ce of several fac ors, we ca wi ess he shif be wee he waves. he shif s are he mos pai ful mome s i he huma his ory. Mos of he Civil wars happe ed a hose imes. “ he Civil war was o fough exclusively, as i seemed o ma y, over he moral issue of slavery or such arrow eco omic issues as ariffs. I was fough over a much larger ques io : would he rich ew co i e be ruled by farmers or by i dus ialazers, by he forces of he Firs Wave or he Seco d?” (23) Alvi offler co siders e ergy depe de cy o be a fu dame al pri ciple of a y civiliza io . he eed for a ew ki d of e ergy is o e of he causes of shif i g o a ew wave. For example, duri g feudalism people used horse power or eve huma power i agricul ure or i co s ruc io , which was also co sidered o be a source of e ergy. “ he preco di io of a y civiliza io , old or ew, is e ergy. Firs wave socie ies drew heir e ergy from “livi g ba eries” – huma a d a imal muscle-power – or from su , wi d a d wa er”(25). “As la e as he Fre ch Revolu io , i has bee es ima ed, Europe drew e ergy from a es ima ed 14 millio horses a d 24 millio oxe ”(25). he i crease i huma popula io evoked he eed for bigger fields a d more buildi gs, which could o lo ger be achieved by usi g he exis i g ools. I order o move forward, people eeded ew ools, such as rac ors, rai s, cars e c. However, he eed for a ew ki d of e ergy was o a sufficie co di io o make a shif . Ma y agricul ural civiliza io s like Chi a, Rome or Greece died a d ever moved o he ex s age. he eed should be backed by developme s i scie ce a d ech ology which ma ifes s he coi cide ce eeded for he civiliza io shif . A good example of ha was he i ve io of he s eam e gi e i he 18 h ce ury whe he agricul ural civiliza io received a grea push ha moved i i o he i dus rial age la er. All o her issues, such as ech ical progress a d eve poli ical, eco omical a d social sides of he socie y are o ly he co seque ces a d hey are bei g cha ged i order o fi he ew reali y. “I dus rialism was more ha smokes acks a d assembly li es. I was a rich, ma y-sided social sys em ha ouched every aspec of huma life a d a acked every fea ure of he Firs Wave pas ” (22). Firs wo waves. Firs wave. Accordi g o he au hor, he people of he Firs Wave were he firs civiliza io ha ever exis ed o he face of he Ear h. He does o de y ha people did exis before ha , bu I did o fi d a y evide ce ha he co sidered hose people o be a civiliza io . I his book he alks of “civilized” people, hose who adop ed he agricul ural s yle of life, a d he res of he popula io , people called “primi ive”, he o es who could o swi ch o he progressive way of livi g a d were lef behi d i barbaric world. “Duri g he lo g mille ia whe Firs Wave civiliza io reig ed supreme, he pla e ’s popula io could have divided i o wo ca egories – he “primi ive” a d he “civilized”.
he so-called primi ive peoples, livi g i small ba ds a d ribes a d subsis i g by ga heri g, hu i g, or fishi g, were hose had bee passed over by he agricul ural revolu io ”(21). he dis i c ive fea ure of he agricul ural socie y was he dece raliza io of power. People s ill had o live oge her mos ly i small groups because i was he o ly way o feed hemselves a d o survive. Bu here was o ce ralized gover me over hem ha would lead hem or ry o orga ize people for bigger projec s. Bru al physical force was used as a me hod of solvi g ei her priva e or social co flic s. ”I mos agricul ural socie ies he grea majori y of people were peasa s who huddled oge her i small, semi-isola ed commu i ies. hey lived o a subsis e ce die , growi g jus barely e ough o keep hemselves alive a d heir mas ers happy” (37). he radi g was developed very poorly a d he marke i self did o exis a all. Eve hough ha here was some simple divisio of labor a d several commu i ies specialized i produci g a par icular ki d of food or simple labor ools, mos ly hey jus a urally excha ged heir produc s wi h he o her groups. Mo ey did o exis i he agricul ural era. As I already me io ed i he basic pri ciples of he Alvi offler’s heory, he social life of he people is a seco dary issue a d is subordi a ed o cer ai civiliza io rules. he agricul ural age was a ice example. he family s ruc ure was also preco di io ed by he huma eeds for survival. Lo s of rela ives lived a he same place mos ly because i was easier o cul iva e la d a d grow heir harves his way. he social life of he majori y of people was qui e mo o o ous due o he lack of ravelli g. A average perso livi g i agricul ural age probably me fewer people duri g his or her life ha we do i o e mo h or eve a week. he agricul ural era was a d, probably, will be he lo ges i he his ory of he huma socie y. I ook more ha a 1500 years for several li le curre s of he firs wave o come oge her a d form he big s ream ha wold la er grow i o he Seco d Wave. Seco d Wave Causes of shif i g i o he seco d waveLike I said before here should have bee a coi cide ce of several fac ors o come oge her i order for a civiliza io o come i o he ex s age. Af er a series of u successful a emp s he huma socie y fi ally made he move owards i s fu ure a d s ar ed he big clock of his ory agai . Accordi g o offler, i happe ed i he 18 h ce ury (All Seco d Wave socie ies bega o draw heir e ergy from coal, gas, a d oil – from irreplaceable fossil fuels. his revolu io ary shif , comi g af er ewcome i ve ed a workable s eam e gi e i 1712, mea ha for he firs ime a civiliza io was ea i g i o a ure’s capi al ra her ha merely livi g off he i eres i provided”(25). he fu ure eed for ew ki ds of e ergy la er co duced o he developme i i dus ry a d ech ology. Fi ally, all he sides of he huma life i he ew age were cha ged i order o ge more efficie cy ou of ew i dus rial forma io s such as ma ufac ories, fac ories, pla s e c. A his s age he civiliza io eeded e irely ew me hods of orga izi g people, o ally ew eco omical a d poli ical sys ems.
Read, Business Horizons // Fall, 1965, c. 71-75. 102 Цитаты из Уоррена Бенниса на этой и др. страницах этой главы взяты из его статей: Beyond Bureaucracy, Transaction, July August, 1965, с. 31-35; Changing Organizations, J. Appl. Behav. Sci., vol. 2, 3, c. 261; более подробно см.: (252). 103 Газарди: (84), с. 71. 104 Заготовленные на случай перехода на другую работу. Примеч. пер. 105 Гарднер: (39), с. 83. 106 Парето:(19),с.231. 107 Объединенный, связанный, присоединенный, товарищ, коллега, партнер и т. п. Примеч. пер. 108 Между 1882 и 1932 гг. появилось десять новых чемпионов, и каждый из них держал первенство в среднем пять лет. Между 1932 и 1951 гг. было семь чемпионов, и каждый продержался в среднем 3,2 года. В период 19511967 гг. каждый из семи чемпионов сохранял титул в среднем 2,3 года. 109 Фишвик цитируется по: Is American History A Happening? by Marshall Fishwick // Saturday Review, May 13, 1967, c. 20. 110 Клапп цитируется по: (228), с. 251, 261. 111 Чайльд цитируется по: (203), с. 108-109. 112 Информацию о воспитании детей см.: в (102), с. 168-169. 113 Распространение фрейдизма обсуждается в: (190), с. 94-95. 114 Цитату из работы Корнберга можно найти в Libraries by Alvin Toffler in Bricks and Mortarboards, A Report from Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., on College Planning and Building, c. 93. 115 О потоке рекламы, воздействующем на человека, см.: (65), с. 5-6. 116 О конференции композиторов и специалистов по компьютерной технике см.: The New York Times, November 14, 1966. 117 «Ускорение» музыки комментируется также Дэвидом Рисманом в (192), с. 178
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