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Russia and the international economy |
1. Russia a d he i er a io al rade sys em Accordi g o a medium- erm forecas for developme s i he area of he i er a io al eco omy, busi ess revival is cumula i g mome um af er he recessio i experie ced i early 1990s. I had a releva effec o he world rade. I 1994 he average i er a io al rade ur over showed a 9.5 perce grow h bei g a record figure i he las 20 years a d by 3 imes exceedi g he i crease i he i er a io al produc io . I 1995 he World rade Orga iza io es ima ed 8 perce i crease i rade ur over as compared wi h a 3 perce grow h i he world produc io . World Ba k exper s hi k ha i he ex 10 years a average i crease i foreig rade will make 6 perce a ually. A eco omic ru -up i mos i dus rialized cou ries was followed by a growi g dema d for ma y produc s a d a co secu ive price hike o i er a io al marke s. Oil marke s showed a bala ce of dema d a d supply i 1995. Average prices of Dubai oil were a $ 123 per me ric o , by 14.9 perce exceedi g 1994 averages. Ow i g o small i crease i he world oil co sump io a d prac ically u cha ged supply si ua io o percep ible cha ge of prices is expec ed. A re d of a ural gas prices o marke s i Wes er Europe was prac ically he same as he oil price dy amics. I 1995 average prices were by 13.4 perce higher as compared wi h 1994. Prices of o ferrous me als have rise drama ically. I 1995 average world prices were as follows: alumi um -- $ 1806 per me ric o (20.3 perce rise i compariso wi h 1994), copper -- $ 2933 (higher by 23.3 perce ), ickel -- $ 8063 (19.3 perce grow h). As a resul of he 1994-95 record price surge i he whole period af er he World War II cellulose joi ed he leaders wi h a 50 perce price hike (up o more ha $ 1000 per me ric o ). Accordi g o a middle-ra ge ou look price s abiliza io accompa ied by a sligh price rise is expec ed. As marke rela io s develop, process of i er al price s ruc ure forma io co i ues i Russia a d i gradually closes o he price sys em exis i g o world marke s. I 1995 co rac prices grew percep ibly, however, prices of a majori y of e ergy resources lagged behi d hose o he world rade marke s i erms of ra es of i crease. he ou come was a worse i g bala ce be wee co rac a d world prices. A impor a role i developme of he i er a io al rade is played by he GA /W O which for 48 years ried o work ou he fu dame als of a fu ure world rade basi g o pri ciples of observa ce of he Agreeme 's ge eral regula io s aimed o keep up o -discrimi a io of i dividual s a es a d o a gradual elimi a io of barriers slowi g dow mu ual excha ge of commodi ies. Si ce 1950 he world rade ur over has i creased by 13 imes a d eigh rou ds of mul ila eral rade ego ia io s held u der he GA 's auspices have led o a e -fold cu of average cus oms du ies. A prese i makes a bi less ha 4 perce . Russia's accessio o he W O will make i possible o ap all measures exis i g wi hi he framework of his orga iza io i order o pro ec Russia's eco omic i eres s. A prese direc or co cealed discrimi a io of Russia producers a d raders o marke s of cer ai cou ries is amo g fac ors affec i g Russia expor s dy amics.
hus, o ly he ba o Russia ura ium expor s o he USA has led o losses for Russia, as es ima ed by some exper s, a $170 millio a year. he o al umber of a i-dumpi g procedures imposed upo Russia has reached 41. More ha a half of hem (22) are qualified as ope ly discrimi a ory cases or u jus ified claims by he Mi is ry of Foreig Eco omic Rela io s. I he summer of 1995 he firs rou d of ego ia io s be wee he Russia delega io a d he W O's Worki g Group o Russia ook place i Ge eva. Members of he Worki g Group apprised i forma io o foreig rade regula io s s a ed i he Russia Memora dum as exhaus ive e ough. A ou come of he seco d rou d aki g place from December 4 o 7 of 1995 was he comple io of discussio of he Russia Memora dum o he foreig rade regime as co cer s rade i goods. Besides, he firs discussio o special a exes o he Memora dum embraci g pro ec io of i ellec ual proper y righ s, rade i services a d rade-rela ed i ves me measures was held. A he same ime, he W O member cou ries have reserved he righ o rever o a de ailed discussio o hree key issues: if s a e-ow ed rade orga iza io s exis i Russia (Moscow de ies his); impor lice si g; subsidizi g of ex er al opera io s. However, eve ow hey agree i pri ciple ha he Russia legisla io is i accorda ce wi h he W O's rules a d orms i hese areas of he foreig rade regula io . here are o appare oppo e s o Russia's accessio o he W O, si ce he world rade, especially i he area of rade i raw ma erials, ca o be regula ed wi hou par icipa io of Russia. However, he admissio of Russia may be surrou ded by a umber of addi io al obliga io s o direc ly followi g from he W O requireme s. Bila eral co sul a io s held i Ge eva have show ha Russia will face some complica io s i he course of ariff ego ia io s. O he whole, he ou come of he seco d rou d of Ge eva alks has bee successful for Russia. 2. Regula io of Ex er al Eco omic Ac ivi ies I 1995 cer ai cha ges were i roduced o he mecha ism of he s a e regula io of he foreig rade. I he firs half of 1995 he s a e regula io of oil expor s was subs a ially ame ded: quo as a d lice ses i oil expor s were abolished alo gside wi h prefere ces (wi h exclusio of supply pursua o i ergover me al agreeme s) while expor du ies o oil a d oil produc s were sig ifica ly reduced; cer ai oil produc s were excluded from he lis of s ra egically impor a commodi ies. Producers' access o cha els allowi g ra spor a io of oil o o her cou ries (pipeli es a d ermi als i sea por s) became a a ural res rai o expor s. he lis of s ra egically impor a raw commodi ies was shor e ed a d he i s i u io of special expor ers was abolished al oge her. he sys em of co rac s' regis ra io became he mai i s rume of co rol over expor s. I dividual prefere ces gra ed o par icipa s of ex er al eco omic ac ivi ies were abolished, excludi g hose issued i accorda ce wi h he laws of he Russia Federa io . he law "O S a e Regula io of Foreig rade" adop ed i July came i o force i Oc ober. he law s ipula ed wha au hori y i his area shall be wi h he Preside , he Gover me a d he Mi is ry of Foreig Eco omic Rela io s.
he exclusive ess of he MFER's posi io was emphasized by he fac ha o ly i was ves ed wi h he righ o lice se impor a d expor ra sac io s subjec o qua i a ive res ric io s or o approval procedures. As pursua o he law, he Russia Gover me shall submi a program of foreig rade developme oge her wi h a draf of he Federal budge for he Parliame 's approval. Alo gside wi h o her provisio s his program shall embrace cus oms ariff ra es pla ed for he year i ques io as well as he ba d of heir possible fluc ua io , hus maki g he foreig rade more predic able. he Gover me has he righ o i roduce expor a d impor qua i a ive res ric io s o a io al securi y grou ds, o comply wi h i er a io al agreeme s or o pro ec he domes ic marke , however, hese measures shall be a ou ced o less ha 3 mo hs prior o heir ac ual i roduc io . he law e visages a possibili y o i roduce s a e mo opoly for rade i cer ai produc s. I his case a special procedure of lice si g impor a d expor opera io s exclusively o s a e-ow ed e erprises shall be applied. As he above me io ed law was effec ua ed, he Commissio of he RF Gover me o Safeguard Measures i Foreig rade became fully legi ima e a d i December i received "Procedures of I ves iga io Prior o Applica io of Safeguard Measures" approved by he MFER (Russ.abbr. MVES). A possibili y o apply safeguard measures agai s compe i ive impor ed produc s complies wi h usual prac ices applicable i he world rade. I his area Russia is la e i worki g ou a d applica io of such measures, especially aki g i o accou ha Russia expor s are of e a d i mos cases u jus ifiably subjec o discrimi a io o foreig marke s. So, he RF impor regime loses i s excep io al liberalism which has bee charac eris ic of i u il rece ly. ariff regula io . From Sep ember hrough December expor du ies levels were gradually lowered u il heir comple e aboli io si ce Ja uary 1, 1996, wi h a excep io of a small group of goods i cludi g oil, a ural gas a d some o her raw commodi ies. I Ju e a d i Oc ober, 1996 impor du y ra es were cha ged. O he whole, cha ges were made i direc io of a i crease i ariffs. Earlier goods axable a 1 perce have co s i u ed a ra her sig ifica par of he lis , a prese his ra e is o ly applicable o cer ai goods wi hi Group 10 of he Ex er al Eco omic Ac ivi y commodi y ome cla ure (grai ) a d 1701 (ca e sugar, bee firm sugar a d sucrose). A 10 perce ariff is ow applied o medici es which earlier have bee exemp from du ies while fish a d fish produc s are subjec o a double rise of du ies (from 5 o 10 perce ) a d du ies o vege ables were ripled (from 5 o 15 perce ). For foods uffs earlier exemp ed from du ies ew ariffs made 5 perce o ba a as a d ci rus frui s, 10 perce o ee a d coffee, 15 perce o fresh cucumbers, however, ra es of impor du ies i Russia s ill remai co siderably lower ha i he EU cou ries (16 perce agai s 21 perce ). here were effec ua ed provisio s s ipula i g a 30 perce du y o goods such as luxuries, obacco produc s, alcoholic beverages a d weapo s. ax regula io . As before, close a e io was paid o produc s subjec o excise axa io .
Наконец, во второй половине 90-х годов сложилась ситуация, когда только 5 процентов торговых потоков, начинающихся или заканчивающихся на территории одного из 29 государств--членов ОЭСР, выходят вовне этой совокупности стран[413], ------------------------------------- [406] - См.: Kenwood A.G., Lougheed A.L. The Growth of the International Economy 1820-1990. An Introductory Text. L.-N.Y., 1992. P. 286. [407] - См.: Korten D.C. When Corporations Rule the World. P. 18. [408] - См.: Hopkins Т.К., Wallerstein E., et al. The Age of Transition. Trajectory of the World System 1945-2025. L., 1996. P. 71. [409] - См.: Yergin D., Stanislaw J. The Commanding Heights. P. 370; Kiplinger K. World Boom Ahead. Why Business and Consumers Will Prosper. Wash., 1998. P. 27. [410] - См.: Judy R. W., D'Amico C. Workforce 2000. P. 23. [411] - См.: Piore M.J., Sabel Ch.F. The Second Industrial Divide. Possibilities for Prosperity. N.Y., 1984. P. 186. [412] - См.: Krugman P. Peddling Prosperity. Economic Sense and Nonsense in the Age of Diminishing Expectations. N.Y.-L., 1994. P. 231; Kenwood A.G., Lougheed A.L
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