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The US Economy after September 11th. Decline or Rapid Growth? (Экономика США после 11-ого сентября. Снижение или Быстрый Рост?) |
Гуашь "Классика", 12 цветов. 
Браслет светоотражающий, самофиксирующийся, желтый. 
Ночник-проектор "Звездное небо и планеты", фиолетовый. he US Eco omy af er Sep ember 11 h. Decli e or Rapid Grow h? Ka ya Ba i a, group #110. O a commo uesday, Sep ember 11 h music o my favouri e radio s a io was i errup ed by a special ews block, which repor ed ha a airpla e ore i o he o e of he wi - owers of he World rade Ce re i ew York. My firs hough was abou drama ic wea her co di io s ha could have led o such a errible accide . I could ’ eve imagi e ha i migh have bee a error ac or some hi g like ha . I some mi u es oge her wi h millio s of people all over he world I was wa chi g views of he ca as rophe o V a d could ’ believe my eyes. If I had ’ heard abou his before, I would have defi i ely hough ha a ew Hollywood movie was o . he u ders a di g a d feeli g of wha had happe ed a d of he scale of his came o ly af er some hours of embarrassme a d shock Bu busi ess a d eco omic spheres ca ’ afford hesi a io a d delay. O his day rui ed o o ly he walls of he World rade Ce re, bu also, which is much more impor a for he eco omy, he assump io of he USA bei g a s a dard of s abili y, rus a d prosperi y. Busi essme , i ves ors a d brokers recog ised ha he fas er hey reac ed, he more hey be efi (or probably he less hey lose) i he si ua io . Marke respo se was immedia e. Words of Ala Gree spa , chairma of he Federal Reserve, illus ra e i : “Grea er u cer ai y for busi ess a d co sumers hi s eco omic ac ivi y, a leas i he shor erm”. Already si ce he begi i g of he year 2001 eco omis s have bee argui g abou whe her he eco omy of he U i ed S a es was decli i g or o . he si ua io , i deed, was o very obvious because of a umber of a emp s of he Federal Reserve o s imula e he expa sio by cu i g he i eres ra e. oday, however, prac ically all of he specialis s say ha he America eco omy is i recessio . ow here is o commo view o how lo g a d how deep he recessio will be a d how o evoke he recovery. o illus ra e his I wa o o e ha o e group of eco omis s believe ha cause of his recessio is o errorism, bu ra her he eco omic a d fi a cial imbala ces ha buil up duri g he la e 1990’s, a d ha he i cide of he Sep ember 11 h was o ly a jol o aggrava i g he si ua io . Firms overi ves ed a d overborrowed due o i fla ed expec a io s abou fu ure profi s. Households borrowed heavily oo, believi g ha share prices would rise forever. hus, i will ake ime o bri g co sump io , i ves me a d loa s o heir a ural ra es. Despi e his, here is also a poi of view ha he eve s of Sep ember 11 h have made a V-shaped recessio a d recovery more likely: a swif slide dow o e slope, sufficie o propel he eco omy up he ex . ow i is high ime o co sider fac s, mai ly s a is ical, which are impor a i he a alysis. I ’s be er, o my mi d, o begi wi h he pessimis ic prog osis. Eco omic da a published si ce Sep ember 11 h have, o surprisi gly, bee gloomy. America's i dus rial produc io fell i Sep ember by 1%. ha was i s 12 h successive mo h of decli e, he lo ges u broke fall si ce 1945. he curre ma ufac uri g ac ivi y had plu ged o i s lowes level si ce February 1991. he 5.8% ou pu loss of he pas 12 mo hs is already grea er ha i he recessio of 1990-91.
Re ail sales also fell i Sep ember, by 2.4%, co sumers cu back heir spe di g i Sep ember by he larges amou i early 15 years. o cope wi h saggi g sales, ma ufac urers have sharply cu back produc io a d shed workers. he a io 's u employme ra e leaped from 4.9% i Sep ember o 5.4% i Oc ober, he bigges o e-mo h jump i more ha 21 years. his is he highes u employme ra e si ce December 1996. 415,000 jobs were elimi a ed duri g he mo h, which represe ed he bigges cu i payrolls si ce May 1980. Ma ufac uri g, airli es, ravel age cies, ho els, re ailers were amo g hose sufferi g big losses. ''Compa ies are i survival mode a d hey are cu i g jobs o co rol cos s,'' said eco omis Ke Mayla d of ClearView Eco omics. '' he ragic eve s of Sep ember 11 h a d heir af erma h probably ipped he eco omy i o recessio . People are wai i g for he o her shoe o drop.'' here is o e more i direc evide ce of he ough s a e of s aff policy i America compa ies: ma y of hem are pla i g o ca cel radi io al Chris mas Par ies due o heir poor fi a cial co di io . hus, accordi g o he GDP repor of he gover me , he eco omy co rac ed i he hird quar er. Eve wi h a mild recessio i America, he , his could s ill ur ou o be he mos severe world recessio si ce he 1930s. (Such a recessio is commo ly defi ed as a ual grow h of less ha 2%.) Global grow h is predic ed o be average 1.5% i 2001 a d 2002, i s slowes wo-year period duri g he pas 50 years. his i creases he risks for America, because co rac i g rade ca amplify a recessio . Las year he volume of world rade grew by 13%, his year grow h may fall o zero. Whe omi al GDP grow h falls so low, ce ral ba ks have less scope o use mo e ary policy o boos dema d, profi s grow more slowly ha expec ed by s ockmarke i ves ors, borrowers fi d i harder o repay deb s. here is also o e fac or, which some specialis s co sider o be o e more evide ce of weake i g eco omy: profi s of co fec io ery compa ies grew his year by 15%. S a is ics say ha his is of e a i dica io of recessio , as ma y people ca ’ sa isfy heir luxury wa s a y more, bu co sumi g larger amou s of swee s, which are compara ively cheaper. I addi io wi h he wide-spread view ha he cou ry has e ered i s firs recessio i a decade, a alys s are predic i g ha i fla io pressures, which have bee modera i g for a year, will re rea fur her, especially i he area of wage pressures, as he surgi g u employme ra e dampe s workers' dema ds for salary i creases. Eco omis s are afraid of ha co i ued fallou from he a acks, worries abou a hrax i he mail, umbli g co sumer co fide ce a d risi g u employme , will keep co sumers igh fis i g, fur her weake i g he eco omy. Bu le us ow swi ch o he more op imis ic predic io as ma y eco omis s s ill recko ha America's recessio will be brief a d mild. hey predic ha GDP of he USA will decli e ill he seco d quar er of he year 2002, he will s ar o recover wi h qui e a s ro g grow h, by 3-4%. If he prog osis ur s ou o be righ , i will be o e of he shor es a d mildes recessio s o record. A d here are hree mai reaso s o believe i i : I is argued ha firms have already made s eps o cu back u wa ed i ve ories a d overcapaci y.
I co ras wi h hree previous recessio s, oil price has falle . America be efi s much from mo e ary a d fiscal policy. I eres ra es have bee cu e imes his year, i cludi g hree reduc io s af er Sep ember 11 h, o heir lowes level si ce he early 1960’s. Preside Bush, mea while, wa s Co gress o quickly pass a package aimed a s imula i g he eco omy hrough ew ax cu s, i creased gover me spe di g, emerge cy relief, which could amou o 1.5% GDP – he bigges fiscal boos i o e year si ce 1975. I deed, he US eco omy had a adva ce i Oc ober, largely ha ks o zero i eres -ra e fi a ci g for ew cars. he value of re ail sales climbed by 7.1%, he bigges i crease ever. Sadly, re ail sales dropped back ex mo h, as he effec s of he i ce ives ra ou . Bu eve o aki g i o accou cars, re ails sales rose by 1% i Oc ober. Besides also i Oc ober he US dollar reached a 3-mo h high agai s he Euro due o ew hopes for a revival of co sumer dema d. he hope ha America's recessio will be mild appears o have helped share prices o recover worldwide. Ma y s ockmarke s have almos regai ed heir levels o Sep ember 10 h. Mai i dexes - asdaq, S&P 500, DJIA - are edgi g up, hough i compariso wi h December 31s , 2000 hey are respec ively 23%, 13.6% a d 8.9% lower. Co sideri g Commodi y Price i dex cha ge o Oc ober a d o he whole year we face prac ically he same si ua io : cha ge of I dus rials i dex o o e year is -15.7% a d o o e mo h 2.7%, cha ge of Food i dex -2.7% a d 3.0% respec ively. he same applies o o her commodi ies as well as for all i ems. his migh sig ify ha gradual boos i g of he Eco omy i he las quar er of his year a d i 2002 will compe sa e for he sharp slump i Sep ember a d he recessio will be lef behi d. As for me I believe i he USA. here is o e commo fea ure of Russia a d America folks I ca dis i guish a d admire, i is ha i he mos drama ic mome s each a io u i es a d i spi e of all obs acles, roubles a d difficul ies overcomes he crisis. his has bee proved o o ce i course of his ory of bo h cou ries ( o wi hou a y excep io s, of course). here are ma y reaso s for a sharp decli e i he US eco omy, bu some fac ors ha could amplify i s recovery a d fur her grow h also exis . Bo h “for” a d “agai s ” were prese ed above a d a he firs gla ce he pessimis ic a icipa io seems o predomi a e. Bu s ill I ca ’ forge abou his “ a io spiri ” – a u explai able compo e , i.e. he so-called X-fac or of success i he mos u favourable co di io s. Al hough, by he way, I may hi k so u der he i flue ce of he America s a dard of well-bei g. Bu s ill aki g i o co sidera io his as well as all o her op imis ic forecas s, I am i cli ed o believe ha he recessio will o las for a lo g ime a d may, o he co rary, s imula e he followi g rapid pace grow h.Lis of resources used i prepari g he repor : www.eco omis .com www.usa oday.com www.reu ers.com he Eco omis , ovember 17 h, 2001.
In their unconscious minds something stirred (в их подсознании что-то зашевелилось) price [pras], happily [xh–pl], stir [stЌ:] "Well, if he wanted his bathing-dress, he must have been going to the seaside. I say, Lily" his face crinkled up with amusement. "What price your old dugout being the murderer himself?" "Poor Mr. Cust? He wouldn't hurt a fly," laughed Lily. They danced on happily in their conscious minds nothing but the pleasure of being together. In their unconscious minds something stirred XXIII. September 11th. Doncaster (одиннадцатое сентября, Донкастер) Doncaster (Донкастер)! I shall, I think (я буду, я думаю), remember that 11th of September all my life (помнить то одиннадцатое сентября всю мою жизнь). Indeed (на самом деле), whenever I see a mention of the St. Leger (когда бы я ни встречался с упоминанием Сент-Леджер) my mind flies automatically not to horse-racing (мой ум автоматически устремляется не к лошадиным бегам; to fly лететь; быстро перемещаться) but to murder (а к убийству). When I recall my own sensations (когда я вспоминаю свои собственные ощущения), the thing that stands out most is a sickening sense of insufficiency (то, что более всего выделяется, это болезненное чувство недостаточности; sufficiency достаток, достаточное количество; sufficient достаточный)
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