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Экономика и Финансы Экономика и Финансы     Международные экономические и валютно-кредитные отношения Международные экономические и валютно-кредитные отношения

The Clash of Civilizations

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he hesis of he challe gi g a d po e ially impor a “Clash of Civiliza io s” is ha he growi g hrea of viole ce arisi g from re ewed co flic s be wee cul ures a d cou ries ha base heir radi io s o religious fai h a d dogma. Samuel P Hu i g o , a poli ical scie is a Harvard U iversi y a d foreig policy adviser o Preside Cli o , argues ha policymakers should be mi dful of curre developme s, especially whe hey i erfere i o her a io s' affairs. he clash of civiliza io s is a co roversial heory i i er a io al rela io s. I was origi ally formula ed i a ar icle by Samuel P. Hu i g o e i led “ he Clash of Civiliza io s?” published i he academic jour al Foreig Affairs i 1993. Hu i g o la er expa ded his hesis i a 1996 book “ he Clash of Civiliza io s a d he Remaki g of World Order”. Hu i g o 's ce ral hesis is ha mai co flic s have always bee marked by clashes be wee fu dame ally differe civilisa io s ra her ha be wee similar a io s. He s a es ha major co flic s occur o he bou daries be wee hese civiliza io s. His heories may be applied o o ly o i er a io al co flic s (for example World War II as a co flic be wee Eas er a d Wes er Europea civilisa io a d be wee Wes a d Japa ) bu also o domes ic o es where cou ries lie o he “faul li es” be wee civilisa io s (example is Yugoslavia as co flic s be wee Eas er Europea a d Islamic civilisa io s). Hu i g o also ide ifies he ex e a d grou ds of co flic . He s udies he poli ics of pos -colo ialism a d a io al ide i y a d reviews ma y o her possible sources of co flic awai i g he civilisa io s curre ly compe i g for resources a d s a us wi hi he world s ruc ure. his work bri gs o fore issues ha have bee pushed o he side for lo g. Hu i g o ’s view is somehow sad, for we see from his work ha he clash is cer ai ly u avoidable. o e heless, i s effec a d speed ca be reduced or deferred. he ques io Hu i g o pu s is whe her ma ki d ac ually reached he e d of civilisa io ? A alysi g “ he Clash of Civiliza io s” we ca o omi esse ial ques io : “Will co flic s be wee civiliza io s domi a e world poli ics?” Hu i g o ’s a swer is affirma ive; clashes be wee civiliza io s are he grea es hrea o world peace owadays. A i er a io al order based o civiliza io s is he bes safeguard agai s war. a io al s a es remai he pri cipal ac ors o he i er a io al are a, bu he mos impor a ca egory is he major civiliza io s - Wes er , La i America, Africa , Islamic, Hi du, Or hodox, Buddhis a d Japa ese. Hu i g o asser s ha civiliza io s have o clear-cu bou daries, o defi i e begi i gs a d e di g. Accordi g o his view, hey are mor al, ever heless, lo g-lived. hey develop a d adap . Also all civiliza io s have par icular weak poi s. he ho spo s are o he faul li es be wee civiliza io s - he Middle Eas , Chech ya, he ra scaucasus, Ce ral Asia, Kashmir, ibe , Sri La ka, a d Suda . he Wes , - Hu i g o says, - is he mos powerful civiliza io bu i s rela ive power is decli i g a he same ime as Co fucia a d Islamic socie ies are risi g o bala ce he wes .

Hu i g o war s us ha da gerous clashes are likely o proceed from Wes er arroga ce a d Islamic i olera ce. Accordi g “ he Clash of Civiliza io s” he esse ial problem for he Wes is o Islamic fu dame alism. Islam is a differe civiliza io wi h obvious co vic io of superiori y of heir cul ure. Hu i g o prese s i his book he evide ce, he argume a d offers a s ra egy for he Wes o pro ec i s cul ure while lear i g o coexis i a mul ipolar a d mul i-civiliza io world. Hu i g o explai s ha he expa sio of he Wes er civiliza io has e ded a d he rio agai s he wes has already begu . he Wes co fro s owadays umerous problems: of slow eco omic grow h, s ag a i g popula io s, u employme , huge gover me defici s, low savi gs ra es, social dege era io , drugs a d crime. hus, eco omic power is shif i g o Asia. Moreover, mili ary power a d poli ical weigh are supposed o go af er. Asia a d Islam have bee he ac ive civiliza io s of he las quar er ce ury. Chi a is probable o have he world's larges eco omy early i he 21s ce ury. I addi io , Asia is expec ed o have seve of he e larges eco omies by 2020. Hu i g o bega his medi a io s by surveyi g diverse hi ki g abou he a ure of global poli ics i he pos -Cold War period. Accordi g o Hu i g o , fu ure co flic s will base o cul ure. He claims ha he co cep of differe civiliza io s, as he highes ra ki g of cul ural ide i y, would i creasi gly become useful i co sideri g he po e ial for co flic . “I is my hypo hesis ha he fu dame al source of co flic i his ew world will o be primarily ideological or primarily eco omic. he grea divisio s amo g huma ki d a d he domi a i g source of co flic will be cul ural. a io s a es will remai he mos powerful ac ors i world affairs, bu he pri cipal co flic s of global poli ics will occur be wee a io s a d groups of differe civiliza io s. he clash of civiliza io s will domi a e global poli ics. he faul li es be wee civiliza io s will be he ba le li es of he fu ure”. I is impor a o say ha usi g various s udies of his ory a d maki g cer ai decisio , Hu i g o divided he civiliza io s i followi g way: Wes er Chris e dom, ce red o Europe a d or h America, i cludi g Aus ralia a d ew Zeala d; he Muslim world of he Middle Eas , or h Africa, Sou h Asia, Malaysia, a d I do esia; he Hi du civiliza io , loca ed mai ly i I dia, epal; he Si ic civiliza io of Chi a, Vie am, Si gapore, aiwa ; Sub-Sahara Africa; he Buddhis areas of or her I dia, epal, Bhu a , Mo golia, Burya ia, Mya mar, haila d, Cambodia, Laos a d ibe ; a d Japa is co sidered as a i depe de civiliza io (Hu i g o 1993, 26). Hu i g o s a es ha he Wes er creed ha he Wes 's values a d poli ical sys ems were u iversal was very aive a d ha i sis e ce owards democra iza io of he res of he world a d accep a ce of u iversal orms would o ly fur her a ago ize o her civiliza io s. Hu i g o also ide ified he Si ic civiliza io o be he mos powerful co i uous hrea o he Wes World. He represe s Islamic civiliza io as a probable ally o Chi a, for hese bo h civiliza io s have revisio is goals a d also are i volved i co flic s wi h o her civiliza io s.

Hu i go also marked he Or hodox, Hi du, a d Japa ese civiliza io s as “swi g” civiliza io s ha are probable o go i differe ways i heir developme . Samuel P. Hu i g o 's ar icle “ he Clash of Civiliza io s” (1993) published i he Foreig Affairs jour al sugges ed he idea ha he world is re ur i g o a civiliza io -domi a ed world where fu ure co flic s would come from clashes be wee “civiliza io s”. ever heless, his heory has bee largely cri icised for overge eraliza io , disregardi g local co flic s a d for improperly predic i g wha has happe ed i he decade af er i s publica io . Eve s of Sep ember he 11 h also became he grou d for he claim Hu i g o is simply o suppor ed by he evide ce. Al hough, i was published whe a pos Cold War world was searchi g for a ew perspec ive o view i er a io al rela io s a d i has however proved i flue ial. Hu i g o 's heory draws a fu ure where he “grea divisio s amo g huma ki d a d he domi a i g source of co flic will be cul ural” (Hu i g o 1993, 22). Hu i g o also argues he idea ha he e d of ideological co flic be wee liberal democracy a d commu ism will lead o he co flic ha is supposed o ake place alo g he borders be wee civiliza io s. O he o her ha d, he predic s co fro a io be wee cou ries from differe civiliza io s for co rol over i er a io al i s i u io s a d eco omic a d mili ary power (Hu i g o 1993, 29). he au hor also explai s how he Wes World represe s i s policies as co s ruc ive a d be eficial for he res of he world a d ha he idea of a u iversal cul ure is a crea io of Wes er mi ds. I evide ce hereof, he says abou such Wes er values as huma righ s, claimi g ha hey very of e are he leas impor a values o o her civiliza io s (James Graham, 2004). he clash of civiliza io s hesis as every heory has i s flaws. James Graham co siders ha Hu i g o ’s hesis somehow dis or ed he reali y, al hough hey are origi al a d persuasive. He also poi s he adva age ha his heory made people look a o -Wes er cul ures more seriously a d wi h grea er i eres . Hu i g o also is cri icized for bei g oo vague a d i dis i c addressi g ma y specific issues (James Graham, 2004). Ma y specialis s say ha Hu i g o ’s a ecdo al s yle is simply o sui able e ough o accou for he ra io aliza io s a d argume s he represe s i such a serious work (Fox 2002, 423). A comprehe sive a alysis accomplished by Jo a ho Fox for he period 1989-2002 co cluded ha he precise co rary of wha Hu i g o predic ed occurred i fac (Fox 2002, 425). I addi io , James Graham says ha civiliza io co flic s were less widespread ha o civiliza io co flic s a d he e d of he Cold War had o o ewor hy impac o he rela io be wee hem (James Graham, 2004). Mos co fusi g of all was he observa io ha where civiliza io co flic did occur i was more likely o ake place be wee groups ha were cul urally similar, ha is i he frame of he same civiliza io a d o be wee hem. hese co clusio s ope ly co radic Hu i g o 's hough s. Ma y say ha Hu i g o 's hesis ig ores cul ure's e de cy o be fas cha gi g a d mul i-dime sio al (Herzfeld 1997, 116).

Not only was he for the moment solely dependent upon his pay, but, as there was no Hotel des Invalides nor even a poorhouse to receive him after his discharge, for the future also he could not but wish to abide by his standard, and not to leave it otherwise than with the establishment of his civic status, His only home was the camp, his only science war, his only hope the general - what this implied, is clear. When Marius after the engagement on the Raudine plain unconstitutionally gave Roman citizenship on the very field of battle to two cohorts of Italian allies en masse for their brave conduct, he justified himself afterwards by saying that amidst the noise of battle he had not been able to distinguish the voice of the laws. If once in more important questions the interest of the army and that of the general should concur to produce unconstitutional demands, who could be security that then other laws also would not cease to be heard amid the clashing of swords? They had now the standing army, the soldier-class, the bodyguard; as in the civil constitution, so also in the military, all the pillars of the future monarchy were already in existence: the monarch alone was wanting

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